Bunker’s Breakdown of the California Association of REALTORS recent report
California's housing market started 2026 on a weak note, according to the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.) report released February 18.
January Highlights:
Existing single-family home sales hit a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 256,550—the lowest since May 2025. That's down 10.8% from December (revised 287,570) and 1.3% from January 2025.
Statewide median price dropped to a 23-month low of $823,180, falling 3.2% month-over-month from $850,680 and below January 2025's $839,130—the biggest year-over-year decline since June 2023.
Year-to-date sales down 1.3%.
This extends a 40-month streak of sub-300,000 annualized sales, reflecting persistent affordability challenges and rate volatility.
Signs of hope ahead:
Pending sales surged 34.6% month-over-month, fueled by a mid-January mortgage rate dip.
Average 30-year fixed rate: 6.11% (vs. 6.96% a year ago).
Inventory rose to 4.4 months (up from 2.7 in December and 4.1 a year earlier), signaling gradual supply improvement—though listing growth is slowing.
C.A.R. President Tamara Suminski called the start "softer" after 2025's strong finish but expects momentum to build with easing rates and more inventory heading into spring.
Chief Economist Jordan Levine noted early-year uncertainty from policy and geopolitical factors but sees stabilizing signals and pending gains pointing to a February rebound.
Regional Snapshot:
Most areas saw year-over-year sales drops: Central Valley (-7.6%), Bay Area (-7.0%), Central Coast (-5.0%), Southern California (-4.4%). Only Far North gained (+19.8%).
Prices mixed: Central Coast up 2.9%, Bay Area +0.2%; Far North down 5.0%, Southern California -0.6%.
Other metrics: Homes sold in 39 days (up from 35), price per sq ft $399 (down from $409), sales-to-list ratio ~98%.
Overall, buyers have more leverage amid softer demand, but lower rates and rising supply could spark recovery soon. Full report at car.org.
